In Steve Jobs’ Dreams: Apple Will Own 40 Percent Of The Smartphone Market By 2013

Little-known research firm Generator Research, which also counts Apple as one of its customers, is predicting that in the next four years, Apple will surpass Nokia and as the largest smartphone company, and that it will own 40 percent of the global market. If you don’t believe it, here’s how they justify it: the report said Apple has “the resources, competencies and motivation to invest in the mobile sector just at the time when the economic climate is forcing many established players in the mobile industry to cut back on product development.” Even more, it said Nokia’s marketshare could fall from 40 percent today to 20 percent in that same period. Of course, Apple won’t get there with one measly iPhone 3G. Generator predicts that in order to sell 77 million iPhone in 2013, Apple will have a range of different models to address different market segments.

You can buy the full report for £ 190 here 😉

(via moconews)

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2 Responses to “In Steve Jobs’ Dreams: Apple Will Own 40 Percent Of The Smartphone Market By 2013”


  1. 1 Christoph Burgdorfer January 15, 2009 at 12:51 am

    Interesting Idea however I think Apple has something the other device manufacturers don’t have:

    – A high marginal (software) market for the device: I am assuming they make more money on the software revenue share than on the hardware if R&D, distribution and other resources are considered.
    – And alternative distribution channels via Apple Store (there is no such thing as a Nokia Store): Conventional manufacturers rely on the operators to buy bulk and distribute the devices for them. Apple doesn’t. Apple can piggyback on the distribution channels for their laptop computers, which itself is already pretty elaborate.
    – Apple have an *active* billing relationship (NOT via the operator) to their users (via iTunes). This will turn out to be invaluable. No other manufacturer has this.
    – Exceeding expectations: For some reason, if Apple adds feature X to the device, everybody goes “wow, that’s a great feature”. If Nokia adds the same feature X to a device, everybody goes “why haven’t they come up with this earlier, that’s logical!”. This is what I would consider to be successful “managing expectations”.

    We’ll see. I personally believe that the iPhone will take over because the concept of scaling is based around the software whereas classical manufacturers scale around hardware which is much more expensive, complex and awkward to maintain. (Apple -> 1 device, many software updates or app downloads ../.. Nokia -> many devices, hardly any software updates / app downloads) … Obviously with this approach the penetration of the devices is important. I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple took a hit on the margins there.

  2. 2 andi January 20, 2009 at 1:02 pm

    thanks – interesting comment and I share the points with you as the most important points why the iPhone will catch up. nevertheless, this needs to be differentiated clearer as this does not suite for every segment. the trend is, however, that smartphone are not only used by business customers/users any longer but also used by prosumers. further, i still think that the iphone is not suitable for business purposes… this field is still dominated clearly by other manufacturers such as rim. we’ll see.


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